Oil prices averaged ~US60/bbl across 2018/2019 leading into the COVID-19 pandemic. Today, the oil price is just $US45/bbl for both WTI and Brent. While oil has recovered from COVID-19 lows in the $US20s in 2Q20, global oil demand remains materially below levels seen in late 2019.
In this week’s view on Australian equities, we look into the likely demand and supply drivers of oil across 2021/22 as the world begins its post-COVID-19 cyclical upswing.
While the demand for oil in 2Q20 fell at a pace like we have never seen before, the potential for a constrained oil supply from 2023 onwards could be the precursor to higher oil prices relative to expectations. In our view, the potential for supply tightness could drive a further leg of recovery in the oil price. We examine:
- The destruction and recovery of oil demand
- CAPEX constraints on supply growth
- Market expectations for pricing
- Our overweight position in the energy sector
Disclaimer and disclosures
Recommendation structure, definitions and the Financial Services Guide (“FSG”) can be found at www.wilsonsadvisory.com.au/disclosures.
Disclaimer
This document has been prepared by Wilsons Advisory and Stockbroking Limited (AFSL 238375, ABN 68 010 529 665) (“Wilsons”) and its authors without consultation with any third parties, nor is Wilsons authorised to provide any information or make any representation or warranty on behalf of such parties. Any opinions contained in this document are subject to change and do not necessarily reflect the views of Wilsons. This document has not been prepared or reviewed by Wilsons' Research Department and does not constitute investment research. Wilsons makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained therein, and no reliance should be placed on this document in making any investment decision. Any projections contained in this communication are estimates only. Such projections are subject to market influences and contingent upon matters outside the control of Wilsons and therefore may not be realised in the future. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.
In preparing the information in this document Wilsons did not take into consideration the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular investor. Any advice contained in this document is general advice only. Before making any investment decision, you should consider your own investment needs and objectives and should seek financial advice. You should consider the Product Disclosure Statement or prospectus in deciding whether to acquire a product. The Product Disclosure Statement or Prospectus is available through your financial adviser.
Wilsons and Wilsons Corporate Finance Limited (ABN 65 057 547 323, AFSL 238 383) and their associates may have received and may continue to receive fees from any company or companies referred to in this document (the “Companies”) in relation to corporate advisory, underwriting or other professional investment services. The directors of Wilsons advise that at the date of this report they and their associates may have relevant interests in the securities of the Companies. Please see relevant Wilsons disclosures at www.wilsonsadvisory.com.au/disclosures.
Written by
John Lockton, Australian Equities
John is a leading investment strategist with 20 years experience.